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Thanksgiving Travel to Rebound Almost to Pre-Pandemic Levels

More than 53.4 million people are expected to travel, the highest single-year increase since 2005. 

AAA Thanksgiving Travel Forecast

Airports and roads may seem jam-packed this year as AAA predicts 53.4 million people will travel for the Thanksgiving holiday, up 13% from 2020. This brings travel volumes within 5% of pre-pandemic levels in 2019, with air travel almost completely recovering from its dramatic fall during the pandemic, up 80% over last year. As restrictions continue to lift and consumer confidence builds, AAA urges travelers to be proactive when making their travel plans this holiday season. 

“This Thanksgiving, travel will look a lot different than last year,” said Paula Twidale, senior vice president of AAA Travel. “Now that the borders are open and new health and safety guidelines are in place, travel is once again high on the list for Americans who are ready to reunite with their loved ones for the holiday.”  

With 6.4 million more people traveling this Thanksgivingcoupled with the recent opening of the U.S. borders to fully vaccinated international travelers – people should prepare for roads and airports to be noticeably more crowded.  

International travel re-opening will allow people to reconnect with friends and family and explore new places, while also giving a much-needed boost to the economy,” Twidale said. “But it also means airports will be busier than we’ve seen, so travelers must plan for longer lines and extra time for TSA checks.” 

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recently released its recommendations for holiday gatherings and related travel, saying that the best way to minimize COVID-19 risk is to get vaccinated if you’re eligible. However, everyone’s situation is unique and therefore, AAA urges anyone considering gathering or traveling for Thanksgiving to consult CDC guidance before finalizing holiday plans.  

AAA Thanksgiving Travel Forecast

Navigating the New Travel Landscape 

This year’s forecast marks the highest single-year increase in Thanksgiving travelers since 2005, bringing travel volumes close to pre-pandemic levels in 2019. Despite gas costing over a dollar more per gallon than this time last year, 90% of people plan to travel by car as their preferred mode of travel. Although the car is still the most popular choice for travelers, a greater share will opt to travel by air and other modes such as bus, train or cruise this year. Whether you plan to do so by car or plane, it’s important to know how to navigate the new travel landscape to avoid unnecessary stress and challenges on the way to your Thanksgiving destination.  

Be Proactive. Book flights, car rentals, accommodations and other activities as early as possible. Prices are not going down and are still somewhat impacted by the limited capacity of flights and staffing challenges faced by many industriesConsider working with a Travel Advisor who can make any last-minute changes to travel plans, explore travel insurance options and help plan a trip that meets your needs and comfort level this holiday season. 

    • Air – Even with air travel seeing a boost this year, AAA finds that the average lowest airfare is 27.3% less than last year coming in at $132. Tuesday and Wednesday are still the most expensive and heaviest travel days, with Monday being the lightest and least expensive. Those wanting to book last-minute travel will find the best fares about two weeks before Thanksgiving, but keep in mind that availability may be limited.
    • Hotels – Mid-range hotel rates have increased about 39%, with average nightly rates ranging between $137 and $172 for AAA Approved hotels. 
    • Car Rentals – Daily car rental rates have increased 4% compared to last Thanksgiving at $98. Over the summer, consumers experienced high costs and limited availability of rental cars in some markets due to the semiconductor chip shortage impacting automakers. While this shortage has subsided, it could return as the holidays near.  

Be Patient. The roads and airports will be busy, so plan ahead. Arrive at the airport early so you’ll have plenty of time to get through longer Transportation Security Administration and other travel checkpoints. For domestic travel, AAA suggests arriving two hours ahead of departure time; for international flights, AAA recommends arriving three hours before departure. Consider booking a flight during non-peak travel periods to cut down on wait times. Hit the road when there’s less traffic and allow for extra time when traveling to your destination. 

Be Prepared. For the 48.3 million Americans hitting the road, make sure you and your vehicle are ready for the trip ahead as AAA expects to respond to over 400,000 calls for help over the Thanksgiving holiday weekend. Before any long trip, AAA suggests getting an inspection to check key components like the battery, fuel system, tires, brakes and fluid levels. These systems are particularly vulnerable to deteriorating, especially without proper care or maintenance.  

Be Protected – Both You and Your Trip If you plan to travel during the holidays, it’s essential to do so safely and understand how to protect yourself, your loved ones and your investment while traveling. Also, as travel restrictions remain in flux, you should know the requirements and recommendations based on your vaccination status, where you’re traveling from and where you’re traveling toAAA’s COVID-19 Travel Restrictions Map and TripTik.AAA.com are also helpful resources travelers may use for free to understand closures, recommendations and requirements when traveling in the U.S. 

    • Travel insurance – AAA highly recommends travel insurance to cover unexpected delays or trip interruptions. It is best to consult the expertise of a Travel Advisor who can guide you on the coverage options available for your specific trip, including if your destination requires visitors to carry travel insurance.
    • Clean accommodations – When booking a place to stay, look for accommodations that prioritize cleanliness and have implemented additional housekeeping standards since the start of the pandemic. Earlier this year, as part of its Diamond designation, AAA enhanced its housekeeping evaluation to include objective, scientific validation of the cleanliness of common surfaces throughout hotels. Hotels that meet these new standards are now recognized as Inspected Clean; a current listing can be found here
    • Safe travel = smart travel – Everything from airports to restaurants to attractions will be busier this Thanksgiving, which means more people congregating. Masks are still required for everyone on planes, buses, trains and other forms of public transportation traveling into, within, or out of the United States, and in U.S. transportation hubs such as airports and stations. The CDC also recommends everyone wear a mask indoors in public if they are in an area of substantial or high transmission.
    • Domestic and international travel guidelines – The U.S. has opened its borders to fully vaccinated international travelers. The CDC has updated its guidance to reflect these changes. When traveling within the U.S., fully vaccinated travelers do not need a negative viral test or to self-quarantine. For international travel, refer to the CDC for specific guidelines.  

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Travelers Headed to Big Cities and Beaches This Thanksgiving 

AAA Travel continues to see a strong recovery that began over the summer and will last into the holiday season. Nationwide, AAA booking data reveals that big cities and tropical destinations are topping travelers’ list this Thanksgiving both domestically and abroad.

 Top U.S. Destinations

  1. Orlando, Fla.
  2. Anaheim, Calif.
  3. Dallas/Ft. Worth, Texas
  4. Phoenix
  5. Honolulu
  6. Maui, Hawaii
  7. Atlanta
  8. Tampa, Fla.
  9. Ft. Lauderdale, Fla.

Top International Destinations

  1. Cancun, Mexico
  2. Montego Bay, Jamaica
  3. Aruba
  4. Los Cabos, Mexico
  5. Nassau, Bahamas
  6. St. Lucia, West Indies
  7. Dublin
  8. (Tie) Tel Aviv, Israel, and Calgary, Canada
  9. Paris

Roads Will Be Bustling 

INRIX, in collaboration with AAA, predicts drivers will experience the worst congestion heading into the holiday weekend as commuters leave work early and mix with holiday travelers. Major metro areas across the U.S. could see more than double the delays versus typical drive times, with drivers in Atlanta, Chicago, Houston, Los Angeles and New York City likely to experience more than three times the delays. 

“Thanksgiving is one of the busiest holidays for road trips and this year will be no different even during the pandemic,” says Bob Pishue, a transportation analyst at INRIX, a transportation analytics firm. “Drivers around major metros must be prepared for significant delays, especially Wednesday afternoon. Knowing when and where congestion will build can help drivers avoid the stress of sitting in traffic.” 

In Boston, peak traffic is expected Wednesday, Nov. 24, from 1-3 p.m. Drivers on I-93 North in the Quincy Market area will see a 240% in traffic during those times. Drivers in New York will experience peak traffic Nov. 24, from 2:30-4:30 p.m., on I-495 East, from Borden Avenue to Little Neck Parkway.

Expected Number May Change  

AAA notes that the actual number of holiday travelers could fluctuate as we approach Thanksgiving. If there is an increase in reported COVID-19 cases, some people may decide to stay home, while others may note the progress in vaccinations and make last-minute decisions to travel. 

For help planning a vacation that meets your needs and comfort level this holiday season, connect with a AAA Travel Advisor. To get started, visit AAA.com/Travel

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