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AAA’s 2022 Holiday Travel Forecast

year-end travel forecast

‘Tis the season to travel, whether you’re headed home to a family gathering or going on a tropical vacation to escape the cold. AAA estimates 112.7 million people will journey 50 miles or more away from home from December 23 to January 2. That’s an increase of 3.6 million people over last year and closing in on pre-pandemic numbers. 2022 is expected to be the third busiest year for holiday travel since AAA began tracking in 2000.

“This year, travel time will be extended due to Christmas Day and New Year’s Day falling on Sundays,” says Mary Maguire, AAA Northeast Vice President of Public and Government Affairs. “With hybrid work schedules, we are seeing more people take long weekends to travel because they can work remotely at their destination and be more flexible with the days they depart and return.”

Modes of Travel

Nearly 102 million Americans will drive to their holiday destinations. Despite roller-coaster gas prices in 2022, this holiday season will see an additional 2 million drivers compared to 2021. Travel by car this year is on par with 2018 but shy of 2019 when 108 million Americans drove out of town for the holidays, the highest year on record.

holiday travel forecast

Air travel will see a 14% increase over last year, with nearly 7.2 million Americans expected to fly. Flights and airports will be packed this holiday season, reminiscent of pre-pandemic days. Demand for flights has surged despite higher airline ticket prices. AAA expects the number of people taking holiday flights this year will come close to matching 2019 when 7.3 million Americans traveled by air.

“If the distance is not reasonable to drive, more people are taking to the air to maximize the time spent at their destination,” Ms. Maguire adds. “Conversely, if the travel distances are reasonable and more than one or two people in the household are taking the trip, it may be more cost-effective to drive rather than buy multiple air tickets, rent a car and spend too much money before the fun even begins.”

Other modes of transportation are also rebounding in a big way. AAA estimates travel by bus, rail and cruise ship will rise to 3.6 million this holiday season, a 23% increase from last year and nearly 94% of 2019’s volume.

Traffic Forecast

Gee, the traffic really is terrific this time of year!

INRIX, a provider of transportation analytics and insights, expects the most congested days on the road to be Friday before Christmas, December 27 and 28, and on Monday, January 2, as travelers mix with commuters. In major metros, especially in Los Angeles and New York City, drivers could experience double the typical delays. Nationwide, drivers could see travel times up to 25% longer.

“With pre-pandemic levels of travelers hitting the road this holiday, drivers must be prepared for delays in and around major metro areas, with Tuesday, December 27 expected to be the nation’s worst day to travel,” says Bob Pishue, transportation analyst at INRIX. “Our advice is to avoid traveling during peak commuting hours. If schedules allow, leave bright and early or after the afternoon commute.”

Best and Worst Times to Travel by Car

DateWorst Travel TimeBest Travel Time
12/23/224:00-7:00 PMBefore 2:00 PM, After 8:00 PM
12/24/2212:00-6:00 PMBefore 11:00 AM, After 7:00 PM
12/25/22Minimal Traffic ExpectedMinimal Traffic Expected
12/26/222:00-6:00 PMBefore 12:00 PM, After 7:00 PM
12/27/223:00-7:00 PMBefore 2:00 PM, After 8:00 PM
12/28/223:00-7:00 PMBefore 2:00 PM, After 8:00 PM
12/29/223:00-7:00 PMBefore 2:00 PM, After 8:00 PM
12/30/223:00-7:00 PMBefore 2:00 PM, After 8:00 PM
12/31/22Minimal Traffic ExpectedMinimal Traffic Expected
1/1/23Minimal Traffic ExpectedMinimal Traffic Expected
1/2/234:00-7:00 PMBefore 3:00 PM, After 8:00 PM

Peak Congestion Near You

MetroCorridorPeak CongestionIncrease Over Typical Traffic
BostonI-93 South, Albany St to MA-2412/28/2022, 3:00-5:00 PM47%
New YorkI-278 West, I-495 to 6th Ave12/27/2022, 3:45-5:45 PM112%
Washington DCI-95 South, MD-212 to Central Ave12/27/2022, 9:30-11:30 AM68%

Are you traveling this holiday season? Let us know in the comments below. Happy holidays!

For help planning a vacation that meets your needs, connect with a AAA travel advisor. To get started, visit AAA.com/Travel


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